Trade Ideas
AI-generated directional setups with levels you can track
What Trade Ideas are
Trade Ideas are machine-generated theses on a single stock: a direction (bullish, bearish, or neutral), a strategy label (for example a long call or a spread), and concrete price levels—typically an entry reference, a target where the thesis would be validated, and a stop where you might consider the idea invalidated for risk purposes. When available, an explanation summarizes why that symbol and structure were highlighted, and a confidence score (0–100%) gives a relative sense of conviction—not a guarantee of outcome.
They exist to compress what is happening across flow, sentiment, and related context into one scannable card. You still decide whether to act, how much size to use, and how the idea fits your own rules.
Availability: Theta and Vega plans
Ideas are not personalized investment advice. They are starting points for research, journaling, and risk management—not instructions to trade.
Where to find them
- Web: Open Trade Ideas in the sidebar (also at optionomics.ai/trade_ideas). Choose a current or historical date, use the quick filters (High Conviction, Bullish, Bearish, Neutral, Open, Hit Target), or combine the full controls—direction, status, source model, close reason, symbol, strategy, confidence, conviction, and history range—and sort by newest, track record, or confidence. Metric tiles above the feed summarize the day: open ideas, bullish and bearish counts, best P/L, resolved win rate, and positive open.
- Mobile app: Choose Ideas. Pull to refresh or keep the screen open for available live updates.
- Public results: Open the Trade Ideas Track Record to review nightly model-cohort results without signing in.
- In-app guide: The feed’s help opens the AI Trade Ideas Guide (also at
/trade_ideas/help), which explains what ideas are, what a model cohort means, the 30-day monitoring window, and exactly how wins, losses, and win rates are counted.
During regular market hours, the product may surface new ideas as conditions change. Outside market hours, you may see no new items, or only historical ideas for dates you select—behavior depends on session and data availability.
How to read status and performance
Each idea moves through a simple lifecycle:
- Open — The thesis is still active within its window (subject to expiry if one applies).
- Closed — The idea was resolved against the tape; the platform may record whether the target or stop level was hit first (when that information is available).
- Expired — The idea aged out without a closed outcome in the same way.
On the card you will often see performance hints: price change versus entry, and sometimes a peak favorable move (“best excursion”) so you can see both the current picture and how far price favored the thesis intraday. These metrics are informational; they do not replace your own trade log or broker fills.
What each card shows
| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Symbol | Underlying ticker the thesis is about |
| Direction | Bullish (expects upside), bearish (expects downside), or neutral (structure- or range-dependent) |
| Strategy | Short label for the expressed view (e.g. buy call, bull call spread)—interpret alongside your own playbook |
| Entry / Target / Stop | Reference levels for the narrative; use them as a framework, not as execution orders from Optionomics |
| Confidence | Relative model confidence (0-100% when shown)—higher means stronger evidence in the setup, not a promise of profit |
| Conviction | User-visible quality tier that incorporates the model cohort’s displayed historical context |
| Source / model context | The idea family that produced the setup and its available cohort track record |
| P/L indicators | Current and peak underlying performance, plus option-leg performance when the idea includes a tracked option structure |
If something is missing on a given card (for example no confidence), treat the idea as still useful for context—the symbol and levels may still align with what you see on flow and charts.
Detail page
Opening a trade idea takes you to a detail experience focused on that symbol and moment in time:
- AI Analysis and risk note — A readable summary of why the setup was highlighted and, when present, a risk note on what could weaken it.
- Track Record — Historical context for the idea family: the cohort’s win rate over similar resolved ideas, a conservative lower bound, and the model’s star rating—separate from this idea’s live result.
- Price chart and performance tiles — Entry, current price, underlying P/L and peak, and—when the idea includes tracked option legs—option P/L and peak.
- Live Assessment — Re-checks the still-active thesis against current market conditions on demand: technicals, dealer positioning, news, event risk, flow, and price levels. The result is a verdict—conditions currently align, mixed conditions, or conditions don’t support the idea right now—with the checks that passed, failed, or were neutral, and an expandable technical breakdown across timeframes.
- Trade Levels and Details — Entry, target, and stop references, the strategy, generating model, and expiry, plus the outcome once closed.
- Option Legs — When present, each leg’s side, strike, DTE, current price, and contribution.
- Community — Votes and comments from signed-in users.
- Explore links — The symbol’s Flow, UOA, Stock Overview, and Model in Builder, which pre-fills the Strategy Builder with the idea’s legs.
- Log this trade — Opens the Trade Journal with the idea as the source.
Use the detail page when a card catches your eye and you want one more layer before you open the full stock tools (options flow, daily analytics, etc.).
Alerts on new trade ideas
You do not have to watch the feed manually. Alerts Management can notify you when a new idea matches your symbol, direction, strategy, confidence, conviction, and displayed model win-rate filters. Delivery channels include email, SMS, Slack, Discord, mobile push, and developer webhook, with history on Notifications.
→ Step-by-step field reference: Trade idea alert criteria
Public receipts
When an idea resolves as a win, its detail page offers a share banner: the receipt at /r/<token> is public and provably timestamped, with share and copy-link buttons. A final receipt shows the outcome, the levels, the thesis snapshot, the option structure when present, and the publication timestamps. A receipt for an idea that is still being tracked intentionally withholds the member-only trade levels and thesis until the outcome check completes.
Treat a receipt as a record of one published idea, not as a promise that another idea will perform the same way.
Compare historical context
Use the public Track Record for standardized nightly cohort results. Vega subscribers can use Trade Idea Backtesting to explore an available idea family over their own selected historical period and controls.
These views provide historical context, not a probability for the next idea. Always check sample size, market period, open or skipped observations, and the idea’s current risk context.
Related
- Market Commentary — market-wide AI commentary
- Alerts Management — option flow, trade ideas, and commentary sources
- Notifications — in-app history of what fired
- Backtesting — explore available idea families over a selected historical period
- Track Record — public rolling and lifetime cohort results
Remember: Past performance of generated levels does not guarantee future results. Always size positions and use stops according to your own plan.
